Wide open.
Saturday’s 97th running of the $200,000 Canadian Derby at Century Mile is more wide open than the arms of family members greeting soldiers home.
“I’ve seen a lot of Canadian Derbies but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this,” said trainer Dave Nicholson who has two horses - Tisum and Magicstrikesagain - entered.
Both of those horses are owned by Chris Duggan.
“Just about any of the 12 horses in the field can win. It’s that competitive,” Nicholson said at Monday night’s well orchestrated post position draw at Century Mile.
“Usually there are one or two standouts. That didn’t happen this year. I think that when it all shakes down you are going to see four or five horses go off at 4 or 5 to one.”
Asked if either of his two entrants can win Nicholson said “Sure. But we’ll have to have some luck. Luck goes a long way in horse racing. Whoever gets the best trip is going to win.”
Tisum, claimed for $20,000 on June 5 at Churchill Downs drew post 10; Magicstrikesagain will start from post 5.
Tisum won the Count Lathum in his latest appearance by a last gasp.
Western Warrior, winner of the August 3 Manitoba Derby at Assiniboia Downs a race from which five horses will meet again in the Canadian Derby, was made the 7-2 favourite by the horse racing website Horse Racing Nation.
To add to the intrigue Western Warrior wound up with the outside 12th post in the mile and a quarter race.
“It’s not ideal,” said Western Warrior’s trainer Dino Condilenios. “But he’s got enough speed to find a spot. It’s a long stretch at Century Mile. And he’s not going to be bothered by anyone out there from that post.”
Really Ralis, an easy winner of the Manitoba Derby Trial but the victim of a wide trip in the Manitoba Derby itself where he finished fifth, was installed as the 4-1 second choice.
Quarry, second by a scant nose to Western Warrior in the Manitoba Derby, was listed as the third betting choice at 9-2.
Really Ralis got post seven; Quarry got a favourable post 4.
Dylan Beardy, Century Mile’s track announcer, who used to set the morning line, said “The top seven or eight horses all have a shot.”
Beardy also said that the 12 post shouldn’t make too much a difference for Western Warrior.
“Western Warrior’s running style works with his outside post.”
Beardy said he can see Tisum getting some action and that Quarry might be over bet.
Beardy’s upset pick is Helio, who is listed at 15-1.
“Helio could surprise. He got the rail and should be able to save some ground.”
Purchased for $200,000 as a yearling, Helio won last year’s Birdcatcher at Calgary’s Century Downs and won an allowance race at Century Mile by five and three-quarter lengths. He was also a strong closing second to Derby entrant Javier in the Western Canada Handicap.
But all that doesn’t mention likely factors Big Curl (10-1), Gethsemane (8-1) and even the maiden Direct Strike (10-1).
Big Curl, capably trained by Tim Rycroft, who won the 2015 Derby by eight lengths with the filly Academic, could be sitting on tilt. Only finishing out of the money once in his eight starts, he lost by a nose to Tisum in the July 24 Count Lathum after winning an allowance race by 11 lengths.
Direct Strike, while never a winner, has been running against some very tough horses at Churchill Downs, Kentucky. For instance he was second to Tiernanogue, who ran second - by half a length - in the Audubon stakes at Churchill Downs. Tiernanogue then ran in the Belmont, the final leg of the Triple Crown.
Direct Strike was bought at Kentucky’s Fasig Tipton Yearling Sale for $500,000.
Gethsemane, third in the Manitoba Derby after a wide trip, has also been testing tough company south of the border.
But all roads to the winner’s circle probably still look like they have to go through Western Warrior.
The Manitoba Derby winner, Western Warrior has won four of his six starts this year including a seven-length romp in a starter allowance at Arkansas’ Oaklawn Park. He was also fourth in the Black Type $200,000 Bathhouse Row stakes - also at Oaklawn Park and as the betting favourite - behind Crupper, who was good enough to run in the Preakness, the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
“I honestly think he will run all day,” Condilenios said of the Canadian Derby’s mile and a quarter distance - an eighth of a mile farther than the Manitoba Derby where Western Warrior barely hung on over the charging Quarry.
“He was getting tired. But he was probably a little short. He hadn’t run in three months and he missed a lot of training because of the mud and all the rain Edmonton got this year. I think he needed that race.
“Distance shouldn’t be a problem. He acts like it. He is built like it.”
Furthermore, Western Warrior has been training like a bear. This past Saturday Western Warrior worked four furlongs in a blazing :46 4/5 seconds.
“A little faster than I wanted,” said Condilenios. “I told the rider to go slower than that.
Condilenios will also start Debrusk, B.C.’s champion two-year-old last year, in the Derby.
“Debrusk missed the break in his last start; then he was trying to get out because he was looking at all the horses. We took the blinkers off him for his last start and that obviously didn’t work. They’re going back on for the Derby.
“He’s been training very well and deserves a shot,” he said of the horse who is listed at 20-1 and could be looking at going wire-to-wire.
“There are a lot of chances in this race,” said Condilenios. Anybody could win it.”
STOCK REPORT - There are three other powerful stakes on Derby Day where first post is 2:45 p.m.
Those stakes are the $75,000 Northlands Distaff, the $100,000 Century Casino Oaks and the $100,000 Dale Saunders Speed to Spare.
The Distaff is most intriguing as two-time Horse of the Year Big Hug will face undefeated in five lifetime starts Chi Chi Time and Dontgiveupthefight, who lost by just a head to Big Hug last year.
Dontgiveupthefight has won four of her last five starts for owner Charles Garvey.
Dontgiveupthefight will be ridden by Rico Walcott, who has won five Canadian Derbies and 14 Derbies all told. Walcott also won the B.C. Derby four times, the Oklahoma Derby, Manitoba Derby, Grande Prairie Derby and Zia Park Derby twice.
Walcott is expected to ride in the Canadian Derby too.
In 2019 he had surgery to remove a brain tumour.
Chi Chi Time was a finalist for last year’s Canadian champion three-year-old filly.
Not much has to be said of Big Hug, who starts from post four and who has won over $600,000 after being purchased at the Alberta Yearling Sale for just $2,500.
There is tons of speed in the Distaff Handicap. Chi Chi Time has won virtually all five of her races on the front end. Viva La Diva is very fast and both Dontgiveupthefight and We the Fringe show speed.
That should benefit Big Hug, who raced in California last year and a horse that has an explosive charge.
Big Hug is high-weighted at 127 pounds; Dontgiveupthefight will tote 125 pounds and Chi Chi Time was assigned 124 pounds.
The Century Casino Oaks is headed by 5-2 morning line favourite, Playful, who starts from post seven. Playful won her last start - the Sonoma - by 9 and a half lengths.
Playful will be tested by 3-1 second favourite Evolution, a speedy filly who won the Jack Hardy in Winnipeg by almost 12 lengths and closer Bartender (7-2).
Playful was seriously thinking of running in the Derby against the boys.
The Dale Saunders Speed to Spare attracted 23 nominations but ‘only’ 12 got in.
Like the Derby, the Speed to Spare is wide open.
Go Go Boss is the morning line favourite at 7-2 and will start from post 10.
Go Go Boss easily won the Manitoba Mile but was disqualified for interference.
Sunbird won the Century Mile and also drew outside - post 12.
Diocles was favoured in his last three starts. But like Go Go Boss and Sunbird, Diocles drew outside - post 11 - leaving three of the main contenders with the three outside posts.
Fireman Dan is always close.
Like the Derby all 12 of the Speed to Spare entrants will carry 126 pounds.
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Inducted into the Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame in 2017.
Author: The Turcottes: The Remarkable Story of a Horse Racing Dynasty.